Fine Indian varieties, offshore floating wines and bees trained to sniff bad corks are among predictions for the future of wine-making as the effects of climate change transform the ancient industry.
Analysts say extreme droughts will leave Australia too hot and arid to remain a high-volume wine-maker, with China expected to become one of the world’s biggest producers. Countries such as Russia, Croatia, Poland, Ukraine and Slovenia could become international players, and southern Canada is likely to rival the United States while Mexico and Brazil follow the lead of Chile and Argentina.
The Future of Wine report, drawn up by leading wine merchants Berry Brothers and Rudd to speculate on the state of the industry in 50 years, includes familiar optimism about English sparkling wines – on the condition that British drinkers support local vineyards.
The team also suggests that genetically modified, disease-resistant grapes will be grown hydroponically in floating offshore vineyards. Jasper Morris, Berry Bros’ Burgundy-buying director, says people producing wine in large volumes would be looking for fermented grapes with some flavour. “It doesn’t matter where it comes from. You are thinking about scales of efficiency and space to do it. Why not tether [vines] to wind turbines and float out there?”
China, already the world’s sixth largest wine producer, will, with the right soil, low labour costs and soaring domestic demand, take the world by storm in both the volume wine (under £10) and fine wines sectors, it predicts.
“China has the vineyards, but not the technical expertise,” said Alun Griffiths, the company’s wine director. “However, if good people from wine-producing countries think there is an opportunity to make wine in China, they will go there and invest.”
The report predicts China’s present 400 wineries will rise at least 10-fold, with a quarter producing fine quality wine. Some wines could rival the best of Bordeaux. Morris said: “It is entirely conceivable that, in such a vast country, there will be pockets of land with a terroir and micro-climate well suited to the production of good quality wines.”
India, because of its geographic position, might be limited to smaller-scale production, but the report says viticultural expertise from Europe and Australasia means the county is likely to challenge more traditional wine-growing countries as ambitious Indians turn to fine wine as a mark of social standing.
As the Australian heat transforms wine-growing into a niche industry in wetter areas such as Tasmania, much of eastern Europe – on the same latitude as some of France’s wine-producing regions – will begin to feature more prominently.
With French champagne producers looking with interest at the chalky soils of southern England, the report suggests the amount of farmland given over to wine production may rival that of France by 2058, although Morris said yesterday there might be a snag in the shape of population pressures in the same areas.
For those who still think wine boxes naff, the report sees most wine being shipped round the world in “wine tankers’ before being put in plastic or reinforced cardboard containers.
A more exotic type of sniffer might also offer protection against faulty wine, said Morris. Honey bees are already being trained to detect plastic explosives, help earlier medical diagnosis and spot signs of deterioration in fruit and veg. Morris suggested that the sommeliers of 2058 could use a small cassette of highly trained bees to ensure no poor-quality wine reaches customers.
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